Cash visibility without the systems

Situation

A global logistics business was hit by multiple cyber-attacks that took down core operational and finance systems. Shipments were still moving and customers still needed serving, but the systems that recorded any of it were unavailable or untrusted. Then COVID arrived and changed volumes across every route at once.

A crisis management office was set up to hold operations together and repair them. Cash was one of the workstreams, and it could not wait for the systems to come back.

Constraint

Normal forecasting inputs did not exist. There was no reliable debtors ledger, no dependable creditors position and no clean view of what had been invoiced. Invoicing itself had stalled, which meant receipts would stall a few weeks later whatever the trading position looked like.

On top of that, nobody could say with confidence what the true position was on any given day, so any forecast had to be built from sources that were independently verifiable.

What was built

A cash forecast constructed from the outside in, using bank data as the primary source rather than the ledger. Receipts and payments were rebuilt from bank transactions, operational volume data from depots and sites, contract terms and known payment runs. Manual controls were put around payments so that money left the business only through a short, visible list.

The forecast was rebuilt weekly as systems came back, with the reconstructed figures replaced by system data as each source became trustworthy again. Daily cash reporting ran alongside it while the position was tightest.

Who it was built with

Finance staff across several countries, depot and operational managers who knew what had actually moved, and the treasury function. Much of the work involved teaching people in operational roles what information mattered for cash and how to send it in a consistent form.

Outcome

Liquidity was maintained throughout the period without a functioning ledger. The business kept trading and kept paying, and the executive team had a weekly cash position they could act on while the recovery ran. As systems were restored, the forecast transitioned onto proper data without a gap in coverage.

What this looks like for you

You do not need perfect data to forecast cash. You need the bank, a small number of verifiable drivers and a process that improves weekly. Waiting for clean data is usually the most expensive option available. See cash flow and financial modelling.